tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post976510694090707774..comments2024-03-29T18:17:34.956+11:00Comments on Thinking Out Aloud: The EU's downward spiralLorenzohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-73526689781351387852015-09-27T11:00:58.380+10:002015-09-27T11:00:58.380+10:00Thanks for directing my attention to that, R W Joh...Thanks for directing my attention to that, R W Johnson is always worth reading and I have no reason to demur from his analysis. <br /><br />Obviously, the ANC is trading on its "vehicle of black nationalism" to be politically dominant in a way that then allows narrow-bargaining to dominate its policy processes. With bad ideas both justifying special interest benefits -- the state apparat itself getting most of the goodies, as one would expect from the role of the SACP (i.e. any form of Marxism in power) -- and blinding folk to wider consequences or serious alternatives. So, somewhat germane to the subject of this post.Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-91469347108002217092015-09-26T20:56:02.730+10:002015-09-26T20:56:02.730+10:00OT but I'd like to see your view on“How Long W...OT but I'd like to see your view on“How Long Will South Africa Survive? The Looming Crisis” by RW Johnson. RW Johnson previously wrote a book with the same title in the 70s that predicted apartheid South Africa would be defeated by boycotts and embargos and not violent struggle by the ANC. Basically he views that large scale mismanagement by the ANC will bring South Africa to the brink. I found the bookninteresting and the discussion on a potential IMF bailout for South Africa in particular stunning.<br />https://www.biznews.com/leadership/2015/08/12/rw-johnson-no-conscious-act-of-govt-reform-will-reverse-current-downward-drift/With the thoughts you'd be thinkinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-11555296785195497812015-09-26T19:15:56.418+10:002015-09-26T19:15:56.418+10:00Not sold on the author's framing, but his unde...Not sold on the author's framing, but his underlying pattern claim seems to have something to it. <br />http://archive.frontpagemag.com/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=30675Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-34667517717974969702015-09-26T13:43:20.914+10:002015-09-26T13:43:20.914+10:00Do you have a reference source for that value?Do you have a reference source for that value?Attempting to be a Skeptical Thinkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00080931431026682991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-43051065113298708692015-09-26T11:35:15.055+10:002015-09-26T11:35:15.055+10:00Muslim males are the one migrant group one can poi...Muslim males are the one migrant group one can point to as problematic in an inter-generational sense. If one keeps the Muslim population down to less than c.2%, the issue is minimised. If it climbs higher, then the problems starting mounting from cognitive-resonance effects.Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-74177180081610470592015-09-26T11:32:34.352+10:002015-09-26T11:32:34.352+10:00Cyprus is already two states, so not quite sure th...Cyprus is already two states, so not quite sure that would qualify as a civil war. Greece is under deep stress, but as exiting the Euro would resolve most of that, it does not seem a likely civil war-generating issue.<br />Would Castile fight to stop Catalonia leaving? Would Catalonia fight to leave? Would not rate either as a strong possibility, but maybe.<br />Hungary, don't really know enough to comment. Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-30866937350574045582015-09-25T23:52:13.781+10:002015-09-25T23:52:13.781+10:00Is it that the various subcultures within the EU a...Is it that the various subcultures within the EU are not doing a good job integrating Muslim migrants, or is it that Muslim migrants anywhere do not attempt to integrate with the local culture when they arrive?<br /><br />My wife and I were discussing this just yesterday. With illegal immigration such a hot topic here in the US, we had the opportunity to contrast various immigrant groups with our perception of the differences with Muslims. While most immigrant groups will form communities where the "home" culture is casually displayed (alternate languages to English may predominate, signage may be in the alternate language, food choices will be dominated by the "home" culture, etc.) these communities are not hostile to the adopted homeland. Sometimes these areas even become a tourist attraction. However, while the "home" culture may be very pronounced there is always a strong sense of amalgamation with the host country's culture as well. These immigrants choose to integrate, which I believe is because of the perceived advantages that made the migration desirable in the first place. By the 2nd and 3rd generation the children of these immigrants are fully steeped in the host country's culture as well as any native born would be and often serve as a bridge between the 1st wave migrants and the host country. We see that in Florida frequently where the children of immigrants are the bilingual interpreters for the older, 1st generation migrants as an example. <br /><br />Contrast that with my impression of Muslim migrants. Muslims rarely choose to integrate. The 2nd and 3rd generations are nearly as steeped in the original culture is the 1st wave. Muslim communities seem to be analogous to cysts, where they choose to reside within but remain apart from the host culture. Then there are the examples of the Muslim culture attempting to disrupt the host country culture and underlying social systems (I thought the attempt to get Oktoberfest canceled particularly humorous). They attempt to create areas of separate and distinct laws for themselves apart from the host country. France is a great example of this as are many other countries.<br /><br />I feel as if Rome is actively importing the Barbarian hordes. This can't end well. Frau Merkel isn't importing a simple replacement population to make up for the low German birth rate. She's importing a hostile, expansionist culture that will not just don lederhosen and start churning out Mercedes autos for export.<br /><br />I really loved Germany in the 80's when I was there, but I doubt that place will exist very soon if it still does at all.Attempting to be a Skeptical Thinkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00080931431026682991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-46039747869170765812015-09-25T20:44:27.684+10:002015-09-25T20:44:27.684+10:00There is unlikely to be a civil war in any (curren...There is unlikely to be a civil war in any (current) EU country in the next 30 years, certainly not for EU causes, but 10-1? I dunno. Thirty years is a long time. Several current EU countries have had civil wars in the past 30 years.<br /><br />There are four EU countries where I can see a non-trivial possibility of a civil war in the next 30 years;<br />Greece: ongoing breakdown of the body politic; EU not the cause here (more like a mitigating factor) but terrible EU monetary policy is a part of the problem.<br />Spain: Catalonian secession. EU mostly irrelevant here.<br />Hungary: Breakdown of the body politic. EU a cause here.<br />Cyprus: Greco-Turkish tensions. EU a strong mitigating factor here.Salemnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-90357933348009763902015-09-25T15:35:05.660+10:002015-09-25T15:35:05.660+10:00The EU has generally done not done a very good job...The EU has generally done not done a very good job of integrating its current Muslim migrants. Importing lots of single Muslim males is, indeed, a bad idea. It is even more a bad idea if done against the wishes of large numbers of citizens.Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-9760616323213728592015-09-25T08:02:03.293+10:002015-09-25T08:02:03.293+10:00Are you at all concerned about the infusion of mil...Are you at all concerned about the infusion of millions of military aged males, who I think it is fair to say will be generally hostile to existing European culture, will ultimately prove to be a highly destabilizing force? I watch the reports and see the pictures of vast numbers of these migrants piling up on borders that are being shut to them. I'm seeing estimates that upwards of 75% of them are military aged males. The longer they are denied access to the promised land the angrier I think they are going to become. There are just too many on the move right now for the EU to absorb. Once they get desperate and/or angry enough, all they'll need are some guns. I believe there will be significant encounters involving deaths with the migrants by Christmas if not full on battles. This has got to be a dream situation for the truly radical elements.Attempting to be a Skeptical Thinkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00080931431026682991noreply@blogger.com