tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post3605612117438749384..comments2024-03-29T18:17:34.956+11:00Comments on Thinking Out Aloud: Scary DemographicsLorenzohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-31488266600376514092010-06-13T11:29:33.548+10:002010-06-13T11:29:33.548+10:00LE: Thanks very much for directing me to that Pros...LE: Thanks very much for directing me to that <i>Prospect</i> piece: deeply enlightening.<br /><br />Glad you liked the post.Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-2499947902016347002010-06-12T11:27:20.593+10:002010-06-12T11:27:20.593+10:00Interesting post as always, Lorenzo.
I think tha...Interesting post as always, Lorenzo. <br /><br />I think that there are three stages that migrants go through generally. The first generation often has a nostalgic fondness for the "mother country". The second generation often tries to "fit in" with the mainstream culture. The third generation then tries to reconnect with the mother country. I've observed this with regard to my cousins, whose father is a second generation migrant from Hong Kong. My uncle is as determinedly Australian as he can be; his mother is very, very Chinese and has not really integrated at all. She came from a rich family (second child of second wife). The elder of my cousins has bucked against his father's attitude, and really embraced his Chinese heritage very strongly. He has a kind of romantic view of it, I think. <br /><br />But some Muslim immigrants seem to skip a step in the scheme above. As you observe, some identify <i>more</i> strongly with Islam than their parents. An interesting explanation as to why this might be is explained in a link contained in <a href="http://skepticlawyer.com.au/2007/07/04/how-can-they-do-it/" rel="nofollow">my post here</a>. Radical Islam actually provides an alternative <i>escape</i> from the various demands of traditional parents e.g. you can marry whomever you want - you don't have to marry your cousin back in Pakistan. And it also seems to offer a way to combat some of the worst aspects of Western life (drug use etc), hence its attraction to disaffected young men.Legal Eaglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01096038577529334966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-10476157581158198562010-06-12T00:41:23.183+10:002010-06-12T00:41:23.183+10:00Oh, evidence of cultural supplanting is widespread...Oh, evidence of cultural supplanting is widespread. That clearly happens much more easily than the supplanting of whole populations. Though often the effect is somewhat interactive: the supplanting culture itself is changed by the interaction.<br /><br />Yes, we have our vocal anti-assimilationists: our official intelligentsia is notably more dominated by hegemonic ideas than that of the US or even (arguably) the EU. They are losing that argument, however.Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-72359273176747427162010-06-11T14:25:48.506+10:002010-06-11T14:25:48.506+10:00Being a settler country, much like ourselves and C...Being a settler country, much like ourselves and C,eh? N,eh? D,eh?, you should be fairly good at assimilation, as we are. That said, you, too, have your vocal element that is trying mightily to put a stop to assimilation. <br /><br />I assume you realize that if a prime driving factor is conversion to the culture of the newcomers, there wouldn't be much DNA evidence, but the old culture would still be dead.Tom Kratmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13342132821284754125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-4772872357472785622010-06-11T10:44:49.830+10:002010-06-11T10:44:49.830+10:00While I am not exactly enamoured of the predictive...While I am not exactly enamoured of the predictive powers of the EU elite (binding value of the euro, anyone?), that perhaps would help explain why there is such a paucity of good demographic data. Such a paucity also indicates an amazing contempt towards their own citizens: but the entire EU structure is predicated on varying levels of that.<br /><br />Population supplanting has occurred in history, though modern DNA studies indicate that it is a lot rarer than might be imagined.<br /><br />The conversion issue is a fascinating extra wrinkle. As an Australian (so a country which much higher immigration rates than the US or EU) I am struck by how badly the EU handles immigration in general. But we do have the advantage of being able to import a lot of East Asians, who integrate well and productively, and Indians and Islanders, who get the parliamentary democracy thing.Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-77083232856742268962010-06-11T03:49:51.659+10:002010-06-11T03:49:51.659+10:00Oh, I should probably add this:
It's only ane...Oh, I should probably add this:<br /><br />It's only anecdotal evidence but, my last job in the Army I had to deal with a great many fairly high end EU types. They were certain that a Muslim majority was inevitable, and the only question was when, estimates ranging from between 40 years (a very low end outlier), to a more common 65 years, to no more than 100. Part of that calc was driven by assumptions of rates of conversion among Euros to Islam. There is, by the way, conversion in both directions, but it's not balanced. It's more or less heavily weighted to conversion (rather, reversion) to Islam.Tom Kratmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13342132821284754125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-592694810667369292010-06-11T03:43:54.704+10:002010-06-11T03:43:54.704+10:00Drat! That last was me, Tom Kratman.Drat! That last was me, Tom Kratman.Tom Kratmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13342132821284754125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-10474007098936694422010-06-11T03:43:17.057+10:002010-06-11T03:43:17.057+10:00And that stability - which is to say the validity ...And that stability - which is to say the validity of the assumption of inertia - is a key question. Muslim TFR could go down. Equally, though, it could go up as they disassimilate yet more. On the other hand, Euro TFR is most unlikely to go up for a combination of interlacing and very difficult to solve problems, notably several generations of ZPG propagandization, an emphasis on short term satisfaction amounting to hedonism (which is about all the EU has to sell), high taxation that they can't politically get control of, and - if a continuingly low or dropping birthrate - the need to import workers to keep the Social Democratic Ponzi scheme going. <br /><br />One possible solution to that last - and it's not a bad solution, indeed some are trying to shift in that direction - is to take in immigrants from more or less culturally compatible Latin America, some parts of Christian Africa, and a few like spots. That might work, though the tax regime in Europe makes it a harder sell for the prospective immigrants, if they are to work and improve things rather than go on the dole and make things worse.Tom Kratmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13342132821284754125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-43284887453170515792010-06-10T05:33:57.679+10:002010-06-10T05:33:57.679+10:00You're probably right that a Muslim majority i...You're probably right that a Muslim majority is not in prospect in Europe. But a majority will not be necessary to severely compromise the liberal nature of European societies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-56254819242430498712010-06-09T21:54:20.641+10:002010-06-09T21:54:20.641+10:00Tom: when I said "come from" I meant in ...Tom: when I said "come from" I meant in a "source of population" sense, not in an individual sense: I have rephrased slightly to make that clearer.<br /><br />That Muslims in Europe currently have a higher fertility rate than non-Muslims is fairly clear: the question is how much higher and how stable that will be. Iceland and Ireland both have higher fertility rates than France: one doubts Muslim populations have much to do with it. France also has had a fertility rate surge that predates significant Muslim immigration.<br /><br />That it would be better if we had decent demographic data to work from is the one thing that is very clear. Blocking data to frustrate analysis makes things worse rather than better.Lorenzohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00305933404442191098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2197051945822486684.post-8963215457626234882010-06-09T00:11:57.195+10:002010-06-09T00:11:57.195+10:00Actually, most French Muslims come from France. T...Actually, most French Muslims come from France. That's one of the reasons I'm not terribly impressed by fertility rates in Tunisia, Algeria, etc. Moreover, those French Muslims are, as you noted, less assimilated, more traditional, and more patriarchal, than their parents. I did find info on line (which, by the way, I can't find now, so feel free to disregard it) from a French ObGyn whose practice is mostly Tunisian women. He wrote the average number of children for Tunisian descended women in France was 3.6 per, or nearly twice the rate in Tunisia. Note, further, that the Muslims in France have already done what you observe increases TFR, retreated into their families.<br /><br />It's also, don't you think, a little suspicious that the population with the greatest TFR, France, is also the population with the largest percentage of Muslims? Coincidence?<br /><br />Does that mean that I _know_ this is going to happen. Hell, no, and I said so expressly. I don't know, but all the evidence that I've seen that matters seems to indicate that, as I said, that's the way to bet it.<br /><br />Glad you liked the book.<br /><br />best,<br /><br />TomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com